Swing odds: how often does a pair move?

Before choosing a strategy, it helps to know how far a pair typically travels. This explorer looks at every window of a chosen length in the pair’s history and counts how often the rate moved at least a given percentage at some point inside that window, up or down.

How to read it

• Window is the number of trading days you might hold a position.
• Move is the swing you are hoping to capture, in percent.
• The result shows how often a move that size happened, how often it went up first versus down first, and the typical largest swing.

Explore the swings

Why it matters

If a 1 percent move within a week happens in only a third of weeks, a strategy that needs 1 percent to break even will struggle. Major pairs usually move less than many newcomers expect, which is why traders use leverage, and why leverage magnifies losses just as much as gains.

The chance of a move happening is not the chance of profiting from it. You still have to be positioned the right way, and the explorer shows that up-first and down-first are often close to even.