USD\JPY Outlook

[MDunleavy]

USD/JPY's break of 94.81 minor resistance suggests that retreat from
95.37 has completed and flips intraday bias back to the upside. Break
of 95.37 will target 100% projection of 91.73 to 94.78 from 93.07 at
96.12 next. On the downside, below 94.01 will indicate that more
consolidation would be seen but after all, short term outlook remains
bullish as long as 93.07 support holds and rise from 91.73 is still in
favor to extend. However, note that break of 93.07 will indicate that
rebound from 91.73 has completed and will turn bias back to the
downside for retesting this low.[actionforex]

[MDunleavy]

Intraday outlook in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some sideway trading might be seen. But short term outlook remain bearish as long as 95.28 resistance holds. Prior break of 61.8% retracement of 91.73 to 97.77 at 94.03 suggests that whole rebound from 91.73 has indeed completed at 97.77 already. Below 93.66 will bring fall resumption for retesting 91.73 low first. On the upside, break of 95.28 resistance will mix up the outlook again.
[actionforex]
P&F USDJPY30 "Box Size20X3" HI/LO
Data 97.778 91.732 ~1.5 Month ~48.15 Day
2009-07-03 18~00
2009-08-20 21~30
BJF Trading Group

97.80|~20||____________________________________________________________|-0.02%|6.61%
97.60|~40||__________________________________________x_o_______________|0.18%|6.4%
97.40|~60||__________________________________________x_o_______________|0.39%|6.18%
97.20|~80||__________________________________________x_o_______________|0.59%|5.96%
97.00|~100|__________________________________________x_o_______________|0.8%|5.74%
96.80|~120|__________________________________________x_o_______________|1%|5.52%
96.60|~140|__________________________________________x_o_x_____________|1.2%|5.31%
96.40|~160|__________________________________________x_o_x_o_x_________|1.41%|5.09%
96.20|~180|__________________________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|1.61%|4.87%
96.00|~200|__________________________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|1.82%|4.65%
95.80|~220|o_____________________________x___________x_o_x_o___o_______|2.02%|4.43%
95.60|~240|o_____________________________x_o_________x_o_x_____o_______|2.23%|4.22%
95.40|~260|o_x___________________________x_o_x___x___x_o_x_____o_______|2.43%|4%
95.20|~280|o_x_o_________________x___x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______o_x_____|2.64%|3.78%
95.00|~300|o_x_o_________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o___|2.84%|3.56%
94.80|~320|o___o_________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___________o_x_o___|3.05%|3.34%
94.60|~340|____o_____________x___x_o___o_x_8___o_x_____________o_x_o___|3.25%|3.13%
94.40|~360|____o_________x___x_o_x_____o_x_____o_______________o_x_o_x_|3.45%|2.91%
94.20|~380|____o_________x_o_x_o_x_____o_______________________o___o_x_|3.66%|2.69%
94.00|~400|____o_________x_o_x_o_x_________________________________o_x_|3.86%|2.47%
93.80|~420|____o_________x_o_x_o_x_________________________________o___|4.07%|2.25%
93.60|~440|____o_________x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________|4.27%|2.04%
93.40|~460|____o_x_______x_o___o_x_____________________________________|4.48%|1.82%
93.20|~480|____o_x_o_____x_____o_______________________________________|4.68%|1.6%
93.00|~500|____o_x_o_____x_____________________________________________|4.89%|1.38%
92.80|~520|____o_x_o_x___x_____________________________________________|5.09%|1.16%
92.60|~540|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________________|5.3%|0.95%
92.40|~560|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________________|5.5%|0.73%
92.20|~580|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________________|5.7%|0.51%
92.00|~600|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________________|5.91%|0.29%
91.80|~620|____o___o___o_______________________________________________|6.11%|0.07%
91.60|~640|____________________________________________________________|6.32%|-0.14%
Column|||||6_3_188_8_5_5_135_6_7_103_3_5_8_6_4_5_5_3_14137_4_3_115_7_3_|

[MDunleavy]

The Japanese Yen surged sharply higher to start the trading week as stocks fell after an election brought the Democratic Party of Japan into power for the first time ever, boosting uncertainty about economic policy, while China’s shares dropped to a three-month low on disappointing earnings from China Merchants Bank.[dailyfx]

P&F USDJPY60 Box Size 250X4 or(1.05%) CLOSE
Data 98.832 - 91.944 ~ 3 Month ~ 89.04 Day
Database 1501 records 92.656 (Last Close)
2009-06-03 06~00
2009-08-31 07~00
BJF Trading Group

98.75|~25|||x___________________________________________________|0.08%|7.4%
98.50|~5O|||x_o_x_______________________________________________|0.34%|7.13%
98.25|~75|||x_o_x_o_____________________________________________|0.59%|6.86%
98.00|~1OO||x_o_x_o_____________________________________________|0.84%|6.59%
97.75|~125||x_o_x_o_____________________________________________|1.09%|6.31%
97.50|~15O||x_o_x_o_________________________________x___________|1.35%|6.04%
97.25|~175||x_o_x_o_________________________________x_o_________|1.6%|5.77%
97.00|~2OO||x_o___o_x___x___________________________x_o_________|1.85%|5.5%
96.75|~225||x_____o_x_o_x_o_____x___________________x_o_________|2.11%|5.23%
96.50|~25O||x_____o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_________________x_o_________|2.36%|4.96%
96.25|~275||x_____o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_________________x_o_x_______|2.61%|4.68%
96.00|~3OO||x_____o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_x_o_____|2.87%|4.41%
95.75|~325||x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x___x_o_x_o_____|3.12%|4.14%
95.50|~35O||__________o___o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_____|3.37%|3.87%
95.25|~375||______________o_x_o_x_o_________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_____|3.62%|3.6%
95.00|~4OO||______________o___o___o_________x_o_x_o_x_o___o_____|3.88%|3.32%
94.75|~425||______________________o_________x_o_x_o_x_____o_x___|4.13%|3.05%
94.50|~45O||______________________o_____x___x_o_x_o_______o_x_o_|4.38%|2.78%
94.25|~475||______________________o_____x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_|4.64%|2.51%
94.00|~5OO||______________________o_____x_o_x_o___________o_x_o_|4.89%|2.24%
93.75|~525||______________________o_____x_o_x_____________o_x_o_|5.14%|1.96%
93.50|~55O||______________________o_____x_o_x_____________o___o_|5.4%|1.69%
93.25|~575||______________________o_x___x_o___________________o_|5.65%|1.42%
93.00|~6OO||______________________o_x_o_x_____________________o_|5.9%|1.15%
92.75|~625||______________________o_x_o_x_____________________o_|6.15%|0.88%
92.50|~65O||______________________o_x_o_x_____________________o_|6.41%|0.6%
92.25|~675||______________________o___o_x_______________________|6.66%|0.33%
92.00|~7OO||__________________________o_x_______________________|6.91%|0.06%
91.75|~725||__________________________o_________________________|7.17%|-0.21%
Column|~75O|137_6_104_6_6_8_5_5_7_184_6_115_8_5_7_5_12105_115_9_|
Count

[MDunleavy]

USD/JPY's strong rebound today argues that recent fall from 97.77 is not ready to resume yet. Intraday bias is turned neutral again for the moment. As noted before, while consolidation from 90.12 might extend further and another rise to 92.52 cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited by 93.29 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 90.12 low will target lower channel support at 89.56 next. However, decisive break of 93.29 will indicate that whole fall from 97.77 has completed and will turn focus back to upper channel resistance (now at 96.44).

"P&F USDJPY5 Box Size 8X3 or(0.26%) HI/LO
Data 92.526 - 90.121 ~ 0 Month ~ 7.34 Day
Database 1525 records 91.443 (Last Close)
2009-09-16 07~55
2009-09-23 16~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

92.56|~8||||________________________________________________________________|-0.04%|2.71%
92.48|~16|||__________________________________________x_____________________|0.05%|2.62%
92.40|~24|||__________________________________________x_o___________________|0.14%|2.53%
92.32|~32|||__________________________________________x_o___________________|0.22%|2.44%
92.24|~4O|||__________________________________________x_o___________________|0.31%|2.35%
92.16|~48|||__________________________________________x_o___________________|0.4%|2.26%
92.08|~56|||__________________________________________x_o_x_________________|0.48%|2.17%
92.00|~64|||__________________________________________x_o_x_o_______________|0.57%|2.08%
91.92|~72|||__________________________________________x_o_x_o_______________|0.65%|2%
91.84|~8O|||__________________________________________x_o___o_______________|0.74%|1.91%
91.76|~88|||__________________________________________x_____o_______________|0.83%|1.82%
91.68|~96|||__________________________________________x_____o_______________|0.91%|1.73%
91.60|~1O4||__________________x_______________________x_____o_______________|1%|1.64%
91.52|~112||__________________x_o_________________x___x_____o_x___________x_|1.09%|1.55%
91.44|~12O||______________x___x_o_____________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_________x_|1.17%|1.46%
91.36|~128||______________x_o_x_o_____x___x___x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________x_|1.26%|1.37%
91.28|~136||______x_______x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________x_|1.35%|1.29%
91.20|~144||______x_o_x___x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_______o___o_x_______x_|1.43%|1.2%
91.12|~152||______x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o___________________o_x_o_____x_|1.52%|1.11%
91.04|~16O||______x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o_______________________o_x_o_____x_|1.61%|1.02%
90.96|~168||______x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________o___o_x___x_|1.69%|0.93%
90.88|~176||______x_o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x_o_x_|1.78%|0.84%
90.80|~184||______x_o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x_o_x_|1.87%|0.75%
90.72|~192||o_____x_o___o_x_________________________________________o_x_o___|1.95%|0.66%
90.64|~2OO||o_____x_____o_x_________________________________________o_x_____|2.04%|0.58%
90.56|~2O8||o_____x_____o___________________________________________o_x_____|2.12%|0.49%
90.48|~216||o_x___x_________________________________________________o_______|2.21%|0.4%
90.40|~224||o_x_o_x_________________________________________________________|2.3%|0.31%
90.32|~232||o_x_o_x_________________________________________________________|2.38%|0.22%
90.24|~24O||o_x_o___________________________________________________________|2.47%|0.13%
90.16|~248||o_______________________________________________________________|2.56%|0.04%
90.08|~256||________________________________________________________________|2.64%|-0.05%
Column|~264|8_4_3_137_6_8_113_5_7_3_3_4_4_4_3_4_3_4_4_168_3_114_7_3_9_6_3_10|
Count|~272|

[MDunleavy]

USD/JPY Charges Higher Following Disappointing Trade Balance
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FastBrokers | Oct 22 09 15:01 GMT |
USD/JPY Charges Higher Following Disappointing Trade Balance

The USD/JPY is popping after Japan’s Trade Balance came in much lower than analyst expectations coupled with a downward revision of the previous release. Analysts are eager to point out that Japan’s exports declined at a slower rate. However, the Trade Balance still took a hit, telling us the improvement in imports far exceeded that in exports. The USD/JPY is climbing in reaction to the unexpected outflow of Yen in conjunction with a rally fueled by oversold conditions. The USD/JPY has managed to separate itself from 90 while climbing past our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines. However, topside volume is fading and the currency pair still faces our 3rd and 4th tier downtrend lines along with 9/21 highs. Meanwhile, there are many downtrend lines we can construct beyond these barriers due to the currency pair’s extensive deterioration over the medium-term. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic and will need further topside confirmation before considering revising our outlook on the USD/JPY over the longer-term. As for the downside, the USD/JPY continues to create breathing room. We find cushions in the form of our 3rd tier uptrend line along with 10/21 lows and the highly psychological 90 level.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on tomorrow’s wave of EU and British econ data long with continued Q3 results. The USD/JPY’s correlation with U.S. equities it’s a bit out of whack these days. However, any broad-based favoritism of the risk trade would likely benefit the USD/JPY’s uptrend. Considering the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have limited topside technical barriers, the USD/JPY’s present run could have more room to go over the near-term.[actionforex]

"P&F USDJPY5 Box Size 10X3 or(0.33%) HI/LO
Data 91.7 - 88.829 ~ 0 Month ~ 9.06 Day
Database 2021 records 91.303 (Last Close)
2009-10-13 20~25
2009-10-22 21~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

91.70|~1O|||________________________________________________________x___|0%|3.23%
91.60|~2O|||________________________________________________________x_o_|0.11%|3.12%
91.50|~3O|||____________________________________________________x___x_o_|0.22%|3.01%
91.40|~4O|||____________________________________________________x_o_x_o_|0.33%|2.89%
91.30|~5O|||========================x===========================x=o=x=o=|0.44%|2.78%
91.20|~6O|||________________________x_o_________________x___x___x_o_____|0.55%|2.67%
91.10|~7O|||________________________x_o_x_______________x_o_x_o_x_______|0.65%|2.56%
91.00|~8O|||________________________x_o_x_o_________x___x_o_x_o_x_______|0.76%|2.44%
90.90|~9O|||____________________x___x_o_x_o_x_______x_o_x_o___o_x_______|0.87%|2.33%
90.80|~1OO||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_____o_________|0.98%|2.22%
90.70|~11O||________________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________|1.09%|2.11%
90.60|~12O||________________x_o_x_o___o___o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________|1.2%|1.99%
90.50|~13O||________________x_o_x_________o_x_o_x___x_o_________________|1.31%|1.88%
90.40|~14O||________________x_o_x_________o___o_x_o_x___________________|1.42%|1.77%
90.30|~15O||________________x_o_x_____________o_x_o_x___________________|1.53%|1.66%
90.20|~16O||________________x_o_______________o_x_o_____________________|1.64%|1.54%
90.10|~17O||________________x_________________o_________________________|1.74%|1.43%
90.00|~18O||________________x___________________________________________|1.85%|1.32%
89.90|~19O||________________x___________________________________________|1.96%|1.21%
89.80|~2OO||x___x___________x___________________________________________|2.07%|1.09%
89.70|~21O||x_o_x_o_________x___________________________________________|2.18%|0.98%
89.60|~22O||__o_x_o_____x___x___________________________________________|2.29%|0.87%
89.50|~23O||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x___________________________________________|2.4%|0.76%
89.40|~24O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________________________________________|2.51%|0.64%
89.30|~25O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________________________________________|2.62%|0.53%
89.20|~26O||__o_x_o___o_x_______________________________________________|2.73%|0.42%
89.10|~27O||__o_x_____o_________________________________________________|2.84%|0.31%
89.00|~28O||__o_x_______________________________________________________|2.94%|0.19%
88.90|~29O||__o_________________________________________________________|3.05%|0.08%
88.80|~3OO||____________________________________________________________|3.16%|-0.03%
Column||||||2_9_9_6_3_4_5_3_145_7_3_7_7_5_7_5_8_4_3_8_5_7_3_3_4_7_3_5_4_|


Excel_USDJPY_Outlook.zip

[sofia.forex]

The JPY remains the highest beta currency as the JPY crosses are reversing higher just as quickly as the sold off in recent days as the US GDP triggered a move higher in bond yields. Note that the USD/JPY found support right on the 21-day moving average, which has been an important Moving Average on several occasions over the recent cycle. For resistance, we'll watch the 91.54 retracement level and the 92.00-area daily Ichimoku cloud resistance. The JPY will need new local lows in bond yields to work back below 90.00 in the USD/JPY.

[boom1]

nice post thanks for this info

[MDunleavy]

USD/JPY closed higher due to loss taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook.[Written by HY Markets]

"P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 130X4 or(4.93%) HI/LO
Data 125.94 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 90.285 (Last Close)
2002-05-28 00~00
2010-01-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

126.10|~13O||________________________________|-0.13%|48.67%
124.80|~26O||oXoX____________________________|0.91%|47.14%
123.50|~39O||oXoXo________X__________________|1.94%|45.6%
122.20|~52O||oXoXo________Xo_________________|2.97%|44.07%
120.90|~65O||oXoXo____X_X_Xo_________________|4%|42.54%
119.60|~78O||oXo_o____XoXoXo_________________|5.03%|41.01%
118.30|~91O||oX__o____XoXoXo_________________|6.07%|39.47%
117.00|~1O4O|oX__o____XoXoXoX________________|7.1%|37.94%
115.70|~117O|o___o____XoXo_oXo_______________|8.13%|36.41%
114.40|~13OO|____o__X_XoX__oXoX______________|9.16%|34.88%
113.10|~143O|____o__XoXoX__oXoXo_____________|10.2%|33.34%
111.80|~156O|____oX_XoXoX__o_oXo_____________|11.23%|31.81%
110.50|~169O|____oXoXoXoX____oXoX____________|12.26%|30.28%
109.20|~182O|____oXoXoXo_____oXoXo___________|13.29%|28.74%
107.90|~195O|____oXoXoX______o_oXo___________|14.32%|27.21%
106.60|~2O8O|____oXoXoX________oXo___________|15.36%|25.68%
105.30|~221O|____o_oXoX________oXo___________|16.39%|24.15%
104.00|~234O|______o_oX________oXo___________|17.42%|22.61%
102.70|~247O|________o_________oXo___________|18.45%|21.08%
101.40|~26OO|__________________oXo______X____|19.49%|19.55%
100.10|~273O|__________________oXoX_____Xo___|20.52%|18.02%
98.80|~286O||__________________oXoXo__X_Xo___|21.55%|16.48%
97.50|~299O||__________________oXoXo__XoXoX__|22.58%|14.95%
96.20|~312O||__________________o_oXo__XoXoXo_|23.61%|13.42%
94.90|~325O||____________________oXo__XoXoXo_|24.65%|11.89%
93.60|~338O||====================oXoX=Xo=oXoX|25.68%|10.35%
92.30|~351O||____________________oXoXoX__o_oX|26.71%|8.82%
91.00|~364O||____________________o_oXoX____oX|27.74%|7.29%
89.70|~377O||______________________oXoX____oX|28.78%|5.75%
88.40|~39OO||______________________o_o_____oX|29.81%|4.22%
87.10|~4O3O||______________________________oX|30.84%|2.69%
85.80|~416O||==============================o=|31.87%|1.16%
84.50|~429O||________________________________|32.9%|-0.38%
Column|~442O|87541568919946947511179448467496|
Count||||||||____5____4________415___________|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

[MDunleavy]

The USDJPY has soared since yesterday’s low…over 200 pips. The rally has reached the 50% retracement of the decline from 9217. This level is reinforced by a congestion zone. After seeing steady gains throughout the week, the Yen was battered following a better than expected U.S. Non-farm payroll report. USD/JPY soared over 200 pips to erase of all of the week’s losses for the pair which had diverged from rising equity markets prior to the move.

"P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 135X4 or(5.13%) HI/LO
Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 90.27 (Last Close)
2002-07-05 00~00
2010-03-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

125.55|~135||_X_X__________________________|0.16%|48.02%
124.20|~27O||_XoXo_________________________|1.23%|46.43%
122.85|~4O5||_XoXo________X________________|2.31%|44.84%
121.50|~54O||_XoXo______X_Xo_______________|3.38%|43.25%
120.15|~675||_Xo_o____X_XoXo_______________|4.45%|41.65%
118.80|~81O||oX__o____XoXoXo_______________|5.53%|40.06%
117.45|~945||oX__o____XoXoXoX______________|6.6%|38.47%
116.10|~1O8O|o___o____XoXo_oXo_____________|7.67%|36.88%
114.75|~1215|____o__X_XoX__oXoX____________|8.75%|35.29%
113.40|~135O|____o__XoXoX__oXoXo___________|9.82%|33.7%
112.05|~1485|____oX_XoXoX__o_oXo___________|10.89%|32.1%
110.70|~162O|____oXoXoXoX____oXo___________|11.97%|30.51%
109.35|~1755|____oXoXoXo_____oXoX__________|13.04%|28.92%
108.00|~189O|____oXoXoX______o_oXo_________|14.12%|27.33%
106.65|~2O25|____oXoXoX________oXo_________|15.19%|25.74%
105.30|~216O|____o_oXoX________oXo_________|16.26%|24.15%
103.95|~2295|______o_oX________oXo_________|17.34%|22.56%
102.60|~243O|________o_________oXo_________|18.41%|20.96%
101.25|~2565|__________________oXo____X____|19.48%|19.37%
99.90|~27OO||__________________oXoX___Xo___|20.56%|17.78%
98.55|~2835||__________________oXoXo__Xo___|21.63%|16.19%
97.20|~297O||__________________oXoXo__XoX__|22.7%|14.6%
95.85|~31O5||__________________o_oXo__XoXo_|23.78%|13.01%
94.50|~324O||____________________oXoX_XoXo_|24.85%|11.41%
93.15|~3375||____________________oXoXoXoXoX|25.92%|9.82%
91.80|~351O||____________________o_oXoXo_oX|27%|8.23%
90.45|~3645||______________________oXoX__oX|28.07%|6.64%
89.10|~378O||______________________oXoX__oX|29.15%|5.05%
87.75|~3915||______________________o_o___oX|30.22%|3.46%
86.40|~4O5O||____________________________oX|31.29%|1.86%
85.05|~4185||____________________________o_|32.37%|0.27%
83.70|~432O||______________________________|33.44%|-1.32%
Column|||||||374415689189458475111695517496|
Count||||||||____5____3________4O3____O____|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart