EUR/CHF outlook

[MDunleavy]

Congestion for EURCHF is more a product of natural fundamental ties rather than even-handed market forces or frequented technical levels. Switzerland’s heavy dependence on the Euro Zone for growth and market policy guidelines are clear from an economic standpoint; and therein lies a naturally buffer to high volatility that may develop from risk trends.[dailyfx]

My Trade Idea: EURCHF - Buy at 1.5150 Target: 1.5230, Stop: 1.5180

P&F EURCHF5 Box Size 3X4 or(0.08%) CLOSE
Data 1.5242 - 1.5146 ~ 0 Month ~ 7.4 Day
Database 1544 records 1.51531 (Last Close)
2009-08-25 05~20
2009-09-01 14~55
BJF Trading Group

1.5243|~3||||_____________________________________________________________________​___|-0.01%|0.64%
1.5240|~6||||________________________________________x____________________________​___|0.01%|0.62%
1.5237|~9||||____________________________________x___x_o__________________________​___|0.03%|0.6%
1.5234|~12|||____________________________________x_o_x_o__________________________​___|0.05%|0.58%
1.5231|~15|||____________________________x___x___x_o_x_o__________________________​___|0.07%|0.56%
1.5228|~18|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x________________________​___|0.09%|0.54%
1.5225|~21|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o______________________​___|0.11%|0.52%
1.5222|~24|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o______________________​___|0.13%|0.5%
1.5219|~27|||____________________________x_o_x_o_______o_x_o______________________​___|0.15%|0.48%
1.5216|~3O|||____________________________x_o_x_________o___o______________________​___|0.17%|0.46%
1.5213|~33|||____________________________x_o_x_____________o_x____________________​___|0.19%|0.44%
1.5210|~36|||____________________________x_o_______________o_x_o__________________​___|0.21%|0.42%
1.5207|~39|||____________________________x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.23%|0.4%
1.5204|~42|||________________________x___x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.25%|0.38%
1.5201|~45|||________________________x_o_x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.27%|0.36%
1.5198|~48|||________________________x_o_x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.29%|0.34%
1.5195|~51|||________________x___x___x_o_x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.31%|0.32%
1.5192|~54|||________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.33%|0.3%
1.5189|~57|||____________x___x_o_x_o_x_o___________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.35%|0.28%
1.5186|~6O|||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.37%|0.26%
1.5183|~63|||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________o_x_o__________________​___|0.39%|0.24%
1.5180|~66|||____________x_o_x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_x___________x____​___|0.41%|0.22%
1.5177|~69|||x___________x_o_x_o___________________________o___o_x_o_________x_o__​___|0.43%|0.2%
1.5174|~72|||x_o_________x_o_x_________________________________o_x_o_________x_o_x​___|0.45%|0.18%
1.5171|~75|||x_o_x_______x_o_x_________________________________o_x_o_________x_o_x​_o_|0.47%|0.17%
1.5168|~78|||__o_x_o_____x_o___________________________________o_x_o_________x_o_x​_o_|0.49%|0.15%
1.5165|~81|||__o_x_o_x___x_____________________________________o_x_o_x_______x_o_x​_o_|0.51%|0.13%
1.5162|~84|||__o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________o___o_x_o_x___x_o__​_o_|0.52%|0.11%
1.5159|~87|||__o___o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x____​_o_|0.54%|0.09%
1.5156|~9O|||______o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x____​_o_|0.56%|0.07%
1.5153|~93|||______o___o___________________________________________o___o_x_o_x____​_o_|0.58%|0.05%
1.5150|~96|||__________________________________________________________o___o_x____​_o_|0.6%|0.03%
1.5147|~99|||______________________________________________________________o_x____​___|0.62%|0.01%
1.5144|~1O2||______________________________________________________________o______​___|0.64%|-0.01%
Column|~1O5||3_6_4_6_4_4_127_9_6_6_4_7_5_147_7_4_6_4_5_8_4_1712176_9_4_5_4_6_126​_4_8_|
Count

[MDunleavy]

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4557 last week and met mentioned 1.4577 key support level. However, the cross the rebounded strongly on SNB intervention and before settling at 1.4667. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd expect some more sideway consolidations in near term. The range of the consolidation is not defined yet and another rise to above 1.4820 cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong resistance ahead of 1.5 psychological level to limit any rebound attempt.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. The test of 1.4577 key support is already done but near term downside should be limited on risk of further intervention from SNB. We'd expect some choppy sideway consolidations below 1.5 psychological level first before down trend finally resume for a test of 1.4315 low. Sustained trading above 1.5 psychological level is needed to invalidate this bearish view.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.[Written by ActionForex.com]

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 80X4 or(2.05%) CLOSE
Data 1.6796 - 1.4418 ~ 92 Month ~ 2809 Day
Database 2000 records 1.4661 (Last Close)
2002-06-03 00~00
2010-02-10 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6800|~8O|||________________________________________|-0.02%|16.52%
1.6720|~16O||________________X_______________________|0.45%|15.97%
1.6640|~24O||______________X_XoX_____________________|0.93%|15.41%
1.6560|~32O||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.41%|14.86%
1.6480|~4OO||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.88%|14.3%
1.6400|~48O||______________XoXoXo____________________|2.36%|13.75%
1.6320|~56O||______________XoXoXoX_X_________________|2.83%|13.19%
1.6240|~64O||____________X_Xo_o_oXoXo________________|3.31%|12.64%
1.6160|~72O||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|3.79%|12.08%
1.6080|~8OO||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|4.26%|11.53%
1.6000|~88O||____________XoX____oXo_o________________|4.74%|10.97%
1.5920|~96O||____________Xo_____oX__o________________|5.22%|10.42%
1.5840|~1O4O|____________X______oX__o____X___________|5.69%|9.86%
1.5760|~112O|____X_____X_X______oX__o____Xo__________|6.17%|9.31%
1.5680|~12OO|__X_Xo____XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|6.64%|8.75%
1.5600|~128O|__XoXo__X_XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.12%|8.2%
1.5520|~136O|__XoXoX_XoXoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.6%|7.64%
1.5440|~144O|__XoXoXoXoXo_______o___o__X_Xo__________|8.07%|7.09%
1.5360|~152O|__Xo_oXoXoX____________o__XoXo______X___|8.55%|6.53%
1.5280|~16OO|__X__oXoXo_____________o__XoXo______XoX_|9.03%|5.98%
1.5200|~168O|__X__oXoX______________o__XoXo______XoXo|9.5%|5.42%
1.5120|~176O|__X__oXoX______________o__Xo_oX_X_X_XoXo|9.98%|4.87%
1.5040|~184O|__X__o_o_______________oX_X__oXoXoXoXoXo|10.45%|4.31%
1.4960|~192O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoXo_o|10.93%|3.76%
1.4880|~2OOO|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoX__o|11.41%|3.2%
1.4800|~2O8O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXo_oX__o|11.88%|2.65%
1.4720|~216O|X_X____________________oXo___o_oX__oX__o|12.36%|2.09%
1.4640|~224O|_oX____________________oX______o___oX__o|12.84%|1.54%
1.4560|~232O|_oX____________________oX__________o____|13.31%|0.98%
1.4480|~24OO|_oX____________________oX_______________|13.79%|0.43%
1.4400|~248O|_o_____________________o________________|14.27%|-0.12%
Column|~256O|1414596674641495665114428494915664471548|
Count||||||||__6_________O______51__4_____4______O___|






BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart